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Outlook for 2019: Global PV demand 130GW

Outlook for 2019: Global PV demand 130GW

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Industry news
2018/12/20 15:42
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Unconsciously, we will say goodbye to 2018. As a researcher in the photovoltaic industry, I naturally need to review what happened in the industry in the past year, and when I was reviewing, I found that I could steal a little lazy because I As early as October 2017, I wrote a "review" of 2018. On October 10, 2017, when I discussed the direction of industrial development with Mr. Li Xianshou, the article "2018 will be the last adult ceremony of the entire photovoltaic industry" (search on today's headlines: "photovoltaic", "adult ceremony" These two keywords can be found. Now, in 2018, the basics are over. Looking back, the outlook at that time has now been fulfilled and fulfilled. The article can naturally be regarded as a review of the photovoltaic industry in 2018. Please allow my little pride, because "commitment judgment" itself is the biggest reward for my research work.

Now, when it comes to the year, in addition to reviewing the past and looking forward to the future, the core content of this article is to look into the upcoming 2019 photovoltaic industry. I hope that this will be a future that can be regarded as a "review". Looking forward, but I dare not ask for it. It is a difficult thing to understand the future. I can’t guarantee that my next judgment will still be accurate. What I can guarantee is that my current words are meticulously tempered. They are all true thoughts written with heart. Ok, my friends, please start our PV industry's 2019 outlook with a critical eye.

This is the best time

At this point in time, the PV industry looks completely different from the industry at this time of last year. If the time is back to the end of 2017, it will be full of plans to expand production, excess capacity, hoarding stocks, and trade on the road. War and subsidies that are about to be lowered. Although the stock price was at a historical high and the investors were optimistic, the industry was brewing a crisis. Many people blame the reshuffle of the photovoltaic industry in 2018 on the 5.31 policy, which is considered to be an industry turmoil caused by an unexpected policy, but it is not the case. Even without 5.31, silicon materials still have to fall below 100 forever. Yuan; polysilicon tablets still have to kill the price war with cash cost, China's subsidy gap is still expanding; even if there is no 5.31, the photovoltaic industry will still be reshuffled in 2018, the price trend of photovoltaic products before 5.31 has already begun, The Chinese government’s policy is simply to suddenly accelerate the industry’s reshuffle.

And when the time comes to the moment, I see more optimism in the industry, clearing the production capacity, delaying the expansion plan, the overseas demand in the outbreak, the significantly improved component power and the corresponding large The decline in investment costs of power plants has laid the foundation for the re-emergence of global PV demand in 2019. Many friends are still looking forward to the era of PV parity, but I want to say: The era of PV parity has arrived. It is at this moment, we are embracing the era of parity, and the overseas markets that are erupting are basically not needed. Relying on the subsidized market of government subsidies, photovoltaic power has become the cheapest energy source in many parts of the world, and it is one of the cheapest.

Looking at the PV industry chain itself, the supplier of silicon materials will be rapidly reduced from more than 30 in 2017 to about 5 in 2019; the wafer link Longji and Central Duopoly are emerging, and with high-efficiency battery capacity More and more, the downstream requirements for the quality of silicon wafers are increasing, which increases the barriers to entry of monocrystalline silicon wafers; although the battery segment has not formed a stable pattern, the concentration is also greatly improved, Tongwei, Longji, Ai Xu will become a 10GW-class battery giant in 2019, which corresponds to the end of Taiwan's battery capacity; although the component link does not make money, but the brand solidification phenomenon is becoming more and more obvious, even the brand name of the company that has been bankrupt for a long time remains "Live" in the hearts of overseas customers, Suntech, Yingli's brand still has a appeal, the barriers of components are not in the production end and on the sales side, channel side, for new players, the entry barriers of component links are also improving.

From the perspective of market structure, we will usher in a more diversified demand in the photovoltaic industry in 2019. 2019 China will still be the world's largest PV market, but the proportion will fall from 53% in 2017 to 2019. 28% of the year; the two major reshuffles in the PV industry in history were caused by the fact that the single market accounted for too much and then this market policy adjustment was triggered. The last time was Germany, when the world share of German PV demand exceeded 50%. This time is China. Since the single market is too high, policy disturbances in a single market will have an impact on the whole industry. Now it is totally different. For the photovoltaic industry, the policy changes in any single market will not be like the previous ones. The same will cause industry volatility so dramatically. The market is diversified and decentralized. The “eggs” of our PV people have been more and more evenly distributed and scattered in more than 100 baskets. We no longer have to worry about a country smashing our basket and winning. Our rice bowl is gone. While the demand for photovoltaics is diversified and stabilized, the pattern of the photovoltaic industry is becoming clearer and more stable. Our optional targets are becoming less and less, and there are only a few companies worth investing in, but these companies will bring us rich s return.

The photovoltaic industry has always been an industry where the “leftovers are kings”. For the “remaining” PV companies, the best times are coming soon, because there will be no irrational “stupid money” rushing in at this stage. To disturb the industry pattern that is becoming more and more quiet, the photovoltaic industry has entered a relatively orderly Warring States period from the chaotic Spring and Autumn Period, and according to the principle of industrial division of labor and anti-monopoly law, the industry cannot enter the era of the Great Unification, each The “leftovers” can stably guard their own one-acre three-point land to obtain sustainable and reliable profits; for investors, this will also be the best era, and the photovoltaic industry may no longer be an unfilled fund hole; Industrial enterprises have increased their ability to hematopoietic and their financing needs are declining. For many years, companies in photovoltaic companies, even leading companies, have only black holes for financing without dividends or financing far greater than dividends, and this phenomenon is expected to be in the future two. Three years have been reversed. The photovoltaic industry is also about to create a quality enterprise that has its own competitive barriers, can prevent competitors from entering, and can stably generate cash inflows. For each of us, photovoltaics that continue to become cheaper will eventually make the sky bluer, the water more blue, and the air fresher. That's right, this is the best photovoltaic era, for everyone of us.

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